Professor Joe Nellis, economic adviser at MHA, the accountancy and advisory firm, shares thoughts on the outlook for 2026.

Implications for 2026:

• Consumer demand is likely to remain fragile. With more people out of work and limited wage growth, household spending power could stay weak well into 2026.
• Business confidence will remain subdued. Higher unemployment often leads firms to delay investment decisions until demand stabilises.
• A slower growth environment is likely. The labour market data suggest the economy may struggle to gain momentum, even if interest rates are cut when the Bank of England and the MPC meet for the last time this year on 18th December.
• Risks tilt downward. Today’s figures point to a more challenging macroeconomic backdrop, where stabilising the labour market becomes a core priority.

October’s labour market data reveals clear signs of strain in the UK economy. The unemployment rate has risen to 5.1%, its highest level in several years, as unemployment creeps ever closer to the pandemic high of 5.3%. This signals that employers are now responding more decisively to weaker demand and higher financing costs. At the same time, regular pay (excluding bonuses) grew by 4.6% year-on-year. While this is higher than forecast, the pace of increase is slowing, suggesting wage pressures are easing for reasons that reflect softer economic conditions rather than strong productivity gains.

The rise in unemployment marks a further shift in labour market dynamics. Redundancies are increasing, and vacancy numbers are continuing to fall as firms scale back hiring plans. This adjustment is consistent with an economy operating under tight monetary policy and persistent uncertainty around global demand and the future of workplace technology.

Although regular earnings remain positive in nominal terms, the deceleration in pay growth indicates that households are unlikely to see a meaningful improvement in real incomes over the coming months, especially if energy and housing costs remain elevated. This combination of higher unemployment and subdued wage momentum is likely to place renewed pressure on consumer spending heading into 2026.